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Coffee Vietnam face many uncertainties

Water shortages, climate changes caused low coffee yields. Meanwhile, exporters suffered losses as market participants short selling.

According to information from the Association of Vietnam Coffee and Cacao (Vicofa), production of coffee crop harvested from 2014 to 2015 but decreased over 20% from the previous year, due to the Central Highlands provinces of severe water shortages. In Dak Lak province, people are having to spend 300,000 dong per hour to pump water for crops. Instead of watering 3-4 times a year, this season they had to irrigate up to 6-7 times.

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Also affected by the weather on coffee production,
Vietnam enterprises are incurred losses as market participants short selling.

To 2015-2016 crop year, the weather continues to fluctuate, causing unusually windy infected coffee trees "flu" when flowering, deciduous series. Within 3 days of Lam Dong province have killed 700 ha coffee or signs stop growing, seriously affecting the productivity of the two subsequent crops.

According to forecasts of Vicofa, if the weather is not good again, the percentage area of old coffee trees continued to increase over 30% of the coffee production in crop year 2015-2016 will be significantly reduced.

Besides issues of production capacity, the current citizens as well as the exporters are lost when coffee prices down just 38,600 dong per kilo. Vietnamese businesses are suffering losses from the sales market participation and reconciling the (market short selling). Coffee market short sales are low, while the market price is higher than the real goods. Specifically, real coffee prices in the Brazilian market with the sale price plus 300 USD per ton, plus 150 USD per ton Indonesia, in Vietnam of 60 USD per ton.

Talking to VnExpress.net, representing Vicofa said that the number of firms entering the market higher short selling grocery market so the risk of loss is quite high. Most businesses are contracted to sell virtual goods, while the genuine goods for delivery a few months then there should these units often have to buy high-priced but low delivery rates should unavoidable loss.

According to preliminary data of the General Department of Customs, the expected volume of coffee exports in April reached only 110,000 tons, equivalent to 225 million USD. 4 months, exports reached only 465,000 tons with a turnover of 968 million US dollars, down 41.8% in volume and 39.4% of turnover compared to the same period last year.

European market surveys show that in the current very dry warehouse in Robusta coffee from Vietnam. Customers mainly Robusta coffee of Brazil called Conilon. However, European citizens do not prefer Robusta from Brazil Conilon much. The price of this kind is very high at + 300 CNF, much higher than export coffee from Vietnam. The speculators are manipulating the market short-selling coffee in coffee when they are actually sold at cost plus lack and high. VIFOCA recommendations, exporters need to consider this fact and have a consistent sales.



Hophuongcoffee
Source vnexpress

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