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World Coffee Organization - ICO: Coffee prices will face pressure to increase

Coffee prices will face upward pressure because of their particularly strong support for Arabica coffee prices, despite the increase in global output is estimated.

ICO has raised the yield estimate increased 360,000 which reached 142 million bags for collection from 2014 to 2015 by the output of countries like Honduras and in four African countries.

Production of African countries increased by about 285,000 estimated 17.2 million bags which reached number but this is the first African to reach since the 1999 to 2000 was 17 million bags.

Bản đồ các nước thành viên ICO
Map Member States ICO

However, even if the number of output is projected to increase, the global output is still quite low under consumption figures given by the ICO to 149 million cases in 2014, up by 1.8% over the year before.

Still require quite strong consumption in many countries, especially those with traditional coffee as Canada, European Union, Japan and the United States.

Inventory accumulation.

The impact of the production shortfall was covered up until now by building inventories in two consecutive seasons surplus production

The warehouse of the importing country ended last year with higher inventory levels approximately 3 million bags compared with 2013.

Inventory has passed validation based on data from London robusta coffee "has been significantly re-create", which rose from 270,000 in April (2014) to 2.6 million bags in the previous month, while the inventory of New York arabica, although declining, also holds 2.6 million bags.

Tồn kho chứng nhận trên thị trường kỳ hạn
Inventories are certified on the futures market in London and New York

The cumulative inventory will help keep the bow on the current market - according to Mr. Mauricio Galindo, head of ICO contain. However, this trend can not be sustained forever, but it will put pressure on prices which had dropped to 18% (in New York) since early 2015.

Price pressure

ICO recognizes the role the impact of currency movements in the prices of coffee, with the weakening of the Real against the US dollar has eroded the price of Arabica coffee in recent years while the currency in Vietnam Robusta production is leading the dollar still survive.

ICO stressed that the gap between arabica and robusta coffee has narrowed considerably in recent months, ending in February stood at 0,55cent / p, less than half the difference between the two types of took place in October and the possibility of stronger resistance line arabica prices before the price drop.


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Source giacaphe